By Alex Highley, Project Associate Panelists at the Columbus Metropolitan Club’s Blue Chip Economic Forecast offered bright expectations for Ohio in 2016. Gazing into their crystal balls, economists Bill Lafayette, Founder of Regionomics, and Ben Ayers, Senior Economist at Nationwide expressed their beliefs that net job growth will remain on the uptick and that Ohio will reflect the national incline. Still, in this statistically-dense session, the pair identified some job sectors that likely will continue to struggle and acknowledged that many people around the state would have trouble obtaining jobs.
2015’s job growth proved even better than Lafayette had expected this time last year. 22,000 net new jobs were created in central Ohio and this is a trend Lafayette believes will stay on course. He expects the education and health care sector to continue to thrive. Currently, one in four new jobs is created in this arena. Ayers and Lafayette also believe housing, technical services, and corporate management will do particularly well this year.
While central Ohio will probably see continued population and job growth this year, the fruits of this development can be enjoyed throughout the metro area. Areas such as Lancaster, Chillicothe, and Groveport can benefit from successes of Columbus’ growth. According to Lafayette, the rest of the Midwest lags behind central Ohio because it relies so heavily on the manufacturing industry. While much of the Ohio economy is built around manufacturing, there is still potential for job formation in other sectors. As discussed in GOPC’s report Regenerating America's Legacy Cities, assets in the heart of downtown, such as universities, medical centers, and government offices, represent the economic engine of any city. These fundamental resources employ thousands, spur economic activity, and build on their successes in surrounding neighborhoods.
Both panelists acknowledged that people from the Midwest tend to be more risk-averse and that this fear of failure when thinking of starting a business is perhaps holding Ohio back. If this attitude can be overcome, Lafayette thinks more people will pursue self-employed businesses in Columbus and throughout the state and that Ohio would be closer to fulfilling its business potential. GOPC works to ensure that business-friendly environments are prevalent throughout the state and that business owners in all neighborhoods and communities thrive and have the community-based tools to be successful job creators.