By Casey Terry and Erica Spaid Patras
The U.S. Census Bureau released its 2023 American Community Survey 5 Year Estimates last week, offering an insight into Ohio population trends over the past year.
Ohio’s population remained stable, with an estimated gain of 5,363 residents, a gain within the state’s margin of error meaning it is an indicator of stability rather than demonstrable growth. The 5,363 net new Ohioans reflect a 0.0005% increase in population, significantly lower than the national growth rate of 0.39%.
The Census estimated 32 of the state’s 88 counties gained residents in the last year while 56 counties lost residents.
Growth is Minimal
For many of the counties that gained residents, those increases fell within the state’s margin of error, meaning they do not reflect a statistically significant trend. The same can be said for those that lost population, where the losses estimated for many counties did not exceed the margin of error. As a result, two thirds of Ohio’s counties should be considered stable in population: the small fluctuations they experienced in 2023 are within the state margin of error.
For example, Morrow County grew by 0.47%, which equates to 165 people and is within the state’s margin of error. Rather than dramatic growth, this is an indicator of stability. This is a positive trend for the state, as many counties are not losing residents at the rate they were over the past several decades.
Of the 56 counties that lost population, most of them were also within the state or county margin of error. While this may indicate that they are trending toward losing residents, it is still not statistically significant, and those counties can be considered relatively stable.
Central Ohio Continues to Grow Faster than the Rest of the State
Four of the five counties with the largest population gains in the last year were in Central Ohio: Union (2.97%), Delaware (2.35%), Fairfield (1.20%), and Pickaway (1.02%). Warren County in southwest Ohio saw the third largest bump in population growth at 1.31%.
While these counties and others are seeing sustained population growth, the state as a whole is not on the cusp of a population explosion. The growth that central Ohio is experiencing is offsetting losses in other parts of the state.
Appalachian Counties are Seeing Largest Drops in Population on a Percentage Basis
The five counties that experienced the greatest declines in population in 2023 as compared to 2022 numbers are all in Ohio’s Appalachian region: Lawrence (-1.05%), Belmont (-0.86%), Harrison (-0.83%), Scioto (-0.81%), and Vinton (-0.81%).
Ohio’s Population is Aging and Households are Becoming Smaller
An Ohio resident’s median age in 2023 was 39.6 years, the same as in 2022. Though it hasn’t changed in the past year, a comparison to the 2013 median age of 39 shows that Ohio’s population is aging. And when compared to the nation, Ohio has a greater share of residents 60+ years and older (24.7% of Ohio compared to 23.3% of the nation).
In 2023 the average household size was 2.38, down from the 2022 estimate of 2.4. This is smaller than the national average household size of 2.54 for 2023.
Number of Owner-Occupied Households Increasing
Ohio is in line with the national trend of increasing homeownership, compared to last year. The percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased 0.2% from 2022 to 2023, with 67% of units being owner-occupied.
Conclusion
The 2023 data do not signal any major changes for Ohio. Central Ohio’s growth continues to outpace the state, offsetting losses in other regions. Many of the state’s counties remain stable within the margin of error, though many may be trending toward more significant population loss. These trends are consistent with the 2050 population projections from the Ohio Department of Development, which project populations losses for 74 of Ohio’s 88 counties by 2050.