By Erica Spaid Patras and Jahvene Davis
The 2008 market crash had severe impacts for the entire nation, but it especially hit rust belt legacy cities that were already struggling to recover from the impacts of deindustrialization. For many, it felt like kicking someone when they were already down. However, if there is something that legacy cities must undeniably be commended for it is their resiliency in the face of adversity, and determination to fight through seemingly overwhelming odds. Read more on the current condition of our legacy cities in our report Ohio + Columbus: A Tale of Two States.
Using Census data, this blog looks specifically at the property value trends discussed in that report but delves deeper into the data by examining additional time periods and geographies.
What Did Housing Values Around the State Look Like in 2020?
2020 median housing values for Ohio can be seen on the map on the left, which shows the range of median housing values across of all Ohio counties, as well as 22 of Ohio’s legacy cities. We created a unique geography called “Adjusted Metros” because Ohio contains several metropolitan boundaries that cross state lines and we wanted to capture only the data for Ohio.
As of 2020, the median household value in Ohio is $151,400. Among legacy cities, the highest housing values in the state are in Cincinnati ($148.7K), Chillicothe ($117.7k) and Xenia ($108.8K), though all are still lower than the state median. The MSA’s with the highest housing values in the state are Cincinnati ($178.7K), Columbus ($177.5K), Cleveland-Elyria ($160.2K), Akron ($155.8K), and Dayton ($155K).
It must be noted that in the case of Cincinnati, a large portion of the city’s MSA is outside of the state (11 out of 16 counties), and so the data for that part of their metro has not been reflected in these statistics. Youngstown is also subject to this Ohio-only methodology with one county in Pennsylvania that has not been reflected here.
How Have Housing Values Changed in the Last 20 Years?
It is difficult to talk about housing values over the last 20 years without acknowledging the impact of the 2008 housing crisis. The market crash can skew larger period data to seem worse than it is. However, that isn’t the end of the story. In fact, when the same ten-year period is broken in half, we can finally start to see how well the state really has been recovering from the 2008 housing crisis.
As of 2020, property values across all legacy cities are already back at the level they were in 2000, if not improved.
On the whole, when measuring median housing value from 2000 to 2020, all legacy cities show they have returned to 2000 levels and some show growth. Four cities in Ohio had property value increases that kept pace with the state average during this time; 19 were significantly lower. No city in Ohio experienced value increases consistent with the nation.
It is worth highlighting the outstanding improvement certain legacy cities have made, and commending their progress. Small legacy cities like Portsmouth and Chillicothe saw large increases in their median housing value. Portsmouth’s median housing value rose from $52,800 to $75,900 (a 44% change), while Chillicothe rose from $80,900 to $117,700 (45%). Cincinnati also showed growth; the median housing value rising from $93,000 to $148,000 (60%). One of the largest increases across the state, though Columbus was not far behind with values rising 58% in the same period.
City Housing Values, 2000-2020
Source: GOPC; U.S. Census Bureau. Selected Housing Characteristics. ACS 5-Year Estimates Data Profiles, 2000, 2020.
Property values changes from 2000-2020 reveal period of highs and lows within the last two decades.
When examining the change in median housing values throughout that twenty-year span, on the surface it’s easy to say that the state did worse from 2010-2020 than it did in 2000-2010.
Source: GOPC; U.S. Census Bureau. Selected Housing Characteristics. ACS 5-Year Estimates Data Profiles, 2000, 2020.
From 2000-2010, median housing values in Ohio increased by 32%, and values for the nation rose by 58% and legacy cities adjusted metros from small to large saw an average percent change of 27%, with the cities themselves a bit worse off at 22%. In contrast, from 2010-2015, there is a noticeable drop in values, thanks to the housing crisis. The state had a percent change of -5%, an average that was reflected across all of the legacy city metros. Columbus’ adjusted metro saw no change for this entire period (0%). All of the cities themselves were significantly worse off than the metros. Columbus City had a percent change of -7%. Small to mid-size legacy cities had an average of -8%, while the large legacy cities saw an extreme loss with an average percent change of -13%.
Source: GOPC; U.S. Census Bureau. Selected Housing Characteristics. ACS 5-Year Estimates Data Profiles, 2000, 2020
Yet when we examine 2015-2020, already we see much more positivity all around. In just 5 years, as shown in the above table, the state median housing values rose 17% from $129.9K to $151.4K. Legacy cities’ adjusted metros median housing values rose by an average of 12% from $135.5K to $151.7K. The Columbus adjusted metro median housing value grew from $149.9 to $177.5 (18%).
Combined, this makes the average percent change from 2000-2020 less impressive than it might otherwise have been but that time period hides years of great lows and highs; Nonetheless, the nation, state, and the adjusted metros of all of Ohio’s legacy cities, as well as Columbus, saw positive change and recovery overall.
A healthy housing market is an indication of a region’s economic health. Property values play a large part of that since they are directly affected by things such as interest rates, available inventory, economic status, real income and population density changes. It is safe to say that Ohio’s housing market has taken significant steps in the right direction, and should try to maintain momentum. This data was pulled from our Ohio + Columbus: A Tale of Two States, which also provides some policy solutions regarding this situation.