Transit is an invaluable resource in low- and moderate-income communities, connecting residents to job centers and services that may otherwise be inaccessible without a car. However, there are concerns that significant investments in transit, particularly rail transit, may increase property values and displacement pressures on area residents. A 2020 study in Housing Policy Debate determined that new investments in rail transit did not result in displacement in low and moderate-income neighborhoods. Notably, the researchers used an alternative metric – eviction rates – to measure displacement in four cities that built or extended rail transit systems between 2005 and 2009.
Source: Elizabeth C. Delmelle, Isabelle Nilsson & Alexander Bryant (2021) Investigating Transit-Induced Displacement Using Eviction Data, Housing Policy Debate
Researchers combined data from Eviction Lab at Princeton University and the Center for Transit Oriented Development to compare changes in outcome (such as eviction filing rates) over time between renters who lived in neighborhoods where a rail station was built and renters who lived in control neighborhoods without such stations. The study authors found rates of evictions and eviction filings didn’t differ significantly between low-income neighborhoods served by new transit investment and those who were not served by new lines or stations, indicating little evidence that new rail projects would promote resident displacement.
Source: Elizabeth C. Delmelle, Isabelle Nilsson & Alexander Bryant (2021) Investigating Transit-Induced Displacement Using Eviction Data, Housing Policy Debate
Newark, San Diego, and Seattle did not experience significant increases in evictions or eviction filings in gentrifiable neighborhoods near new transit stations compared with similar gentrifiable neighborhoods elsewhere in the city. The only exception was in the City of St. Louis, where eviction rates in transit neighborhoods exceeded those in control neighborhoods after new transit investment. The opening of the MetroLink extension and the subsequent spike in eviction rates both coincided with the 2007-2008 financial crisis, and researchers were unable to disentangle the role that new transit investment played in elevating eviction rates from the impact of the financial crisis.
The study authors emphasized that quantifying the effects of transit on gentrification and displacement is challenging because of inconsistent control neighborhoods, dataset limitations, and other factors. However, the lack of significant findings in this study suggest that the benefits of improved transit could outweigh potential gentrification. While few metros in Ohio have rail systems, similar arguments have been made regarding Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and gentrification, given that BRT contains similar features to light rail that could prompt the same development patterns after significant new investment. City leaders and transportation planners can, and should, consider the findings of this research when considering possible transportation improvements and investment decisions to balance potential development concerns with the benefits provided to regular transit users.
See original coverage of the research in Housing Matters, and read the full paper here.